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Kaunisto Profile
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The Big Boss
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Registered: 01-2008
Location: Finland
Posts: 8873
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Re: 2019 Finnish parliamentary election


Notable points:
- expected huge defeat for previous prime minister party Centre
- first any election in Finnish history where no party gets 20% of votes
- halfway last term the populist-right Finns split to two, with former leaders and moderate elements taking half of representatives to form a new party, Blue Reform - which failed to keep any seats, while the now more radical version of Finns repeated victory of previous election
- the traditional main right party Coalition surprisingly was able to keep their position, despite having been in very unpopular previous government with Centre and Blue Reform
- despite receiving most seats and votes, this was third worst result ever for SDP
- most likely combination for next government is (like I've been saying for months...) SDP+Coalition+Green+Swedish
- turnout 72%, slightly up from previous
- only 117 MPs (of 200) were re-elected, which I expect to be all-time record (edit: is not, 2011 was only 113)
- average age of new parliament is 46; 108 men and 92 women

Last edited by Kaunisto, Apr/15/2019, 2:28


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Apr/15/2019, 0:51 Link to this post Send PM to Kaunisto
 
Kaunisto Profile
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The Big Boss
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Re: 2019 Finnish parliamentary election


SDP leader (the likely prime minister) Rinne is trying to form new government of center-left, including Centre, Green, Left Alliance and Swedish parties.

This would means 117 MPs of 200, with the advantage that the last two smallest of these parties would not be in position to break the government alone.
Still, it'll be difficult to get together.

It's notable that Coalition would be in opposition. While they've rarely been largest party (typically second or third), Coalition has been in every government except one (4 years) during last 32 years.

While the previous government was furthest right since WWII, this currently suggested (/expected) combination would be furthest left since early 80's.

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May/8/2019, 16:34 Link to this post Send PM to Kaunisto
 
Kaunisto Profile
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The Big Boss
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Re: 2019 Finnish parliamentary election


Ironically the present/previous government has become the most long-time in history - despite having technically resigned month before the election and having had it's second largest party break up halfway term.

And it's very surprising that these couple weeks of negotiations for new government have lasted longer than it's taken ever before (after a government remained through whole term).

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May/31/2019, 13:10 Link to this post Send PM to Kaunisto
 
Kaunisto Profile
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The Big Boss
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Re: 2019 Finnish parliamentary election


So, SDP+Centre+Green+Left+Swedish makes the furthest left government Finland has had since early 80's.
And the previous government, despite Centre having prime minister, was furthest right since WWII. (Says something about Finnish politics that you can have both extremes with Centre still in it...)

Obviously I'm happy with the big change to left - the previous government's cuts on education, healthcare and welfare have been devastating - but it's also concerning to see one extreme after another, suggesting that Finland may be moving toward a left-right divide. Almost all my life, Finnish governments have been center-right, center-left or (possibly most often) consisted of parties on both sides.

In the new cabinet SDP will have 7 ministers (including prime minister), Centre gets 5 (including finance and defence), Greens get 3 (foreign, interior and environment) and 2 for Left (social affairs and health, education) and SPP (justice, Nordic co-operation and equality*).
*=that last one seems like it was just created to give the party some kind of second post


In short, we have leftists and greens running things for next four years and government spending and taxes will go up, up, up. (And IMO that's a good thing.)
Meanwhile Centre is just tagging along to finish last government's failed regional reform, trying to give more power to local administrations because it would benefit them. (Centre is the party of rural and low-population areas.)

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Jun/3/2019, 16:24 Link to this post Send PM to Kaunisto
 


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